Two questions are on the minds of fans and competitors on their way to Texas Motor Speedway for this weekend's Nationwide and Sprint Cup Series races. First and foremost, will we be hit by severe weather while at the track, and secondly, will rain cause delays and/or cancellation of the events. Lets start off with the most important question concerning severe weather.
Simply put, I believe chances are very low that severe weather will impact Texas Motor Speedway, and that a widespread, worst case scenario outbreak (like we saw a couple weeks ago in the Dallas-Fort Worth area) will NOT occur between now and the completion of Saturday night's Sprint Cup race. Here's the deal... There WILL be severe thunderstorms not far to the north and northwest of the Fort Worth area, but it is very typical for these storms, which form along a front of sorts called a dry line, to die out before reaching the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex in the type of weather pattern that will be in place Friday and Saturday. What is possible is that these storms weaken as they approach Fort Worth, but hold together just long enough to produce a thunderstorm at or near the track, and therefore, we cannot completely rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm in the Texas Motor Speedway area. Check out this map from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center and you'll see what I'm talking about...
Notice that the threat for severe weather becomes greater in the Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning timeframe, but mainly for the Texas/Oklahoma border and points north (up into Kansas). That's where I think the main event will be. Notice in the graphic on the right, although the "slight risk" area is just getting into the western Fort Worth area, near the track, there is no longer a green "general thunderstorm" area over the rest of Texas. So while the potential for severe thunderstorms increases Saturday into Sunday, the overall coverage of these storms will likely be less by then.
My thinking is that we'll have to keep an eye on the radar Friday and Saturday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours leading up to and during the races, but I think we'll get the races in, and I think there is only a slim chance that we'll have to worry about severe storms at or near the track. On Sunday, however, I would advise anyone still camping at the track to try to leave as early as possible. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will pass through the Dallas-Fort Worth area sometime between late Sunday morning and mid-afternoon. I will be camping in an RV in the infield with some guys at work, and at this point I am suggesting to them that we leave no later than 10am to get out ahead of the storms. That time is subject to change, but again I will stress that I do not see these more severe storms sneaking in early enough to affect Saturday night's race, or traffic leaving the track immediately after the race.
With all that said, I think we'll get the races in both Friday and Saturday night, since any showers or storms that do try to sneak in will likely be isolated and short-lived. In fact, I think chances are good that we'll make it through both races without any rain delays. So here's my forecast for Friday and Saturday night's races... I'm going to go ahead and give them both green flags...
Friday night, O'Reilly Auto Parts 300: Mostly cloudy, breezy and muggy with a very small chance of a brief thundershower. Green flag temperature around 77 degrees, cooling to near 73 when the checkered flag falls.
Saturday night, Samsung Mobile 500: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and humid, with a slight chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm just before or during the race. Green flag temperature 80 degrees, cooling only to around 75 when the checkered flag falls.
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