Bristol Race Weekend Forecast

We’ll have another stalled out front to watch this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway.  The good news is, it appears rain chances will get lower as the race weekend progresses, and by Saturday and Sunday we’re just looking at isolated to scattered showers/t-showers.  Also, temperatures will be unseasonably warm, a bonus for a race that’s seen its fair share of cold weather!  We’re still several days out, and as we saw in Daytona, things can change, especially when you are dealing with scattered, garden variety showers/storms, but here’s how it looks to me right now (basic forecast at the bottom of the page).

Scattered thunderstorms look most likely on Friday, and chances are we’ll see at least some delays or perhaps even cancellations in the Sprint Cup, Nationwide, and K&N Series practice sessions, as well as Sprint Cup qualifying, which starts at 3:40pm. 

Showers/storms become less numerous/less likely by Saturday, and will be mostly confined to the afternoon/evening hours.  We’ll have to keep an eye on these… due to the nature of this weather pattern (mostly pop-up showers along a dying front), there’s just no way of knowing if and/or when rain will hit the relatively tiny Bristol Motor Speedway.  The Nationwide Series Ford EcoBoost 300 and the NASCAR K&N Series Widow Wax 125 will be threatened, but a total washout is NOT expected.

On Sunday, an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible.  Again, this is a wait and see situation, but because this stalled out front will have had a day or two to “wash itself out”, chances look pretty good that we’ll see a full Food City 500 with little if any interruption (due to weather at least!).  

Bristol has lights, and it is only a half-mile long with high banks, so it is the quickest and easiest on the schedule when it comes to drying.  We’ve got that going for us even if it does rain!

So what about the temperatures?  Well, part of my day-job is to identify risks to other people’s (vendors’) forecasts, and I have to mention in this case that at this point there is warmer risk to most forecasts you’ll find on the web or through twitter/facebook, especially later in the weekend.  The large-scale pattern over the eastern half of the US will be one favoring extreme warmth in many places.  So if you’re seeing forecasts for highs around 70 and lows near 50 this weekend, there’s a much better chance it’ll be warmer than that versus colder.  Looks to me like we’ll have highs in the 70-72 range on Friday with the better chances for rain and increased cloud cover holding temps down, but by Saturday and especially Sunday, we should have highs solidly in the mid 70s with a chance of hitting 78-80 on Sunday if the clouds and rain chances end up being lower than currently forecast.  So don't be surprised if you see other forecasts trend warmer as the weekend approaches.  Morning lows will be in the low-mid 50s each day, but the risk is to the warmer side here, too.  Perhaps the track will be a little slicker than normal at Bristol- probably not a bad thing for us fans!

Bottom line, if you are planning on attending on-track activities on Friday, be prepared for rain and thunderstorms.  You may want to bring a poncho and throw an extra set of clothes in your car or have one handy in a backpack, just in case.  I don’t see any major threat for severe weather, but lightning will be a possibility, so have a plan in place to seek shelter if you hear thunder (other than the kind that comes from under the hood, of course!).  Keep the poncho handy the rest of the weekend to be on the safe side, but expect to see some great racing Saturday and Sunday!

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High near 72, low near 54.

Saturday: Hit & miss showers and thunderstorms possible. High near 75, low near 52.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 78, low 52.