Benefits of a Texas-Bristol Spring Race Date Swap

On the evening of March 11, 1993, while preparing for our biannual trip to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the upcoming NASCAR race that weekend, I told my dad I didn't want to go.  This is the only time I've ever said those words to him.  If the date rings a bell, you know why I didn't want to go.  As a 13 year old budding meteorologist, I knew we'd be in trouble if we tried to go to the track and camp for the weekend, because we were about to get pounded with heavy snow and strong winds.  Two days later at my childhood home in Roswell, Georgia, we had nearly a foot of snow on the ground, and no electricity.  Several inches of snow fell at the track, which looked more like Chicagoland Speedway in January than Atlanta Motor Speedway in spring.

Image courtesy of taurtoisemotorsports.com

Of course, the next weekend was beautiful in Atlanta, and because it was a rare open weekend on the schedule, we were back at the track in our infield space that Saturday to watch the race.  Atlanta Motor Speedway has always had its fair share of crazy weather over the years, though things improved slightly when the fall race was moved from the last race of the season in November to late October.  Moving that race to Labor Day weekend under the lights made it downright warm.  In 2010, we learned we'd be losing the March race date, which was plagued by volatile and mostly cold weather, affecting attendance especially hard when the economy became an added excuse not to show up on race weekends.  For many fans, it wasn't worth spending their money if they were going to have to suffer through cold or wet weather.

I always thought that a good move, at least weather-wise, would have been to swap spring race dates between Atlanta and Texas Motor Speedway, to at least make an attempt to boost attendance at the Georgia track by offering somewhat warmer weather.  Though this would have meant a somewhat cooler Texas race weekend (it's still warmer in Fort Worth in March than average temperatures in Atlanta for the same date), it would also greatly reduce the probability of severe weather during race weekend at Texas Motor Speedway by moving it to March versus April.  In my opinion, this is a ticking time bomb that has the potential to make my biggest fear a reality; damaging severe weather during a NASCAR event weekend. 

Just recently, we saw what April can bring in north Texas.  No fewer than three tornadic supercell thunderstorms threatened the Dallas-Fort Worth area at the same time on April 3rd, one of which actually gave a scare to Texas Motor Speedway, but thankfully did no damage to the property.  Going through the data available from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, one can find that for the area covered by the Dallas-Fort Worth doppler radar site, there is an average of 12 tornadoes in April, and 151 total "significant" severe weather events (large hail, damaging winds, or tornadoes).  These numbers are significantly lower in the cooler month of March, with an average of 5 tornadoes in the Dallas-Fort Worth radar area, and 72 total significant severe weather events (more than 50% fewer severe weather events versus April).

Average Daily Severe Weather Occurrences between 1980 and 2006 in the area covered by the Dallas-Fort Worth Doppler radar coverage area, courtesy of NOAA Storm Prediction Center

It's too late to swap with Atlanta, since we no longer have a March race, but there is another Speedway Motorsports Incorporated track with a March date that may greatly benefit from a swap with Texas: Bristol Motor Speedway.  I don't think I need to go into too much detail about the attendance for this year's March race in Bristol.  This time, if weather was a factor at all in the lack of attendance, it was only due to rain and not temperatures, because they enjoyed unseasonable warmth all weekend.  But Bristol, which is nestled near the spine of the Appalachian Mountains in the northeast corner of Tennessee, has also endured some pretty cold weather and snow during race weekends over the years, and the weather has been blamed often for empty seats.

Image from NASCAR.com

The average temperature (computed over the last 30 years) in Bristol for March 18, when this year's race was held, is 47 degrees!  Move that race to the weekend of Sunday April 15th, currently held by Texas Motor Speedway, and the average temperature in Bristol is a much more tolerable 55 degrees.  By moving Texas from April to March, you get a similar average temperature of 58 degrees, obviously cooler than you would get in April, but still within reason.  A win-win if you ask me... Though you open the door to the possibility of some cold weather for the Texas race weekend every now and then, you give the fans in Bristol a big break on the likelihood of a really cold race weekend and allow for more walk-up sales when the weather is pleasant.  AND, more importantly, you significantly decrease the probability of a damaging severe weather event during race weekend at Texas Motor Speedway, as shown by the data above.

Obviously weather is just one factor of many in the decision-making process when determining the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule, but in my professional opinion as a meteorologist, I think this issue is something that should at least be reviewed, just in case.  We all saw the horrifying video from the Indiana State Fair last year, where a strong wind gust from a thunderstorm caused a stage to collapse, killing seven people and injuring many others.  With tens of thousands of people working or camping at a NASCAR track with very little safe shelter, a severe thunderstorm or tornado could be catastrophic if one hit during an event weekend.  Last year, NASCAR and Atlanta Motor Speedway officials made what I felt was a heroic and underrated call to push the postponed Labor Day race to Tuesday, instead of making an attempt to run it on Monday when severe weather was forecast (severe weather did in fact affect the area near the track, and a tornado touched down on the north side of Atlanta that day).  In that case, everyone knew there was a high risk of severe weather and flooding ahead of time and they were able to prepare for it, but it's the obscure and difficult to predict event like that which occurred in Indiana that has me worried, as a significant amount of time would be needed to get NASCAR fans, competitors and track workers to adequate shelter during a severe thunderstorm.  Any way we can minimize the chance of an Indiana State Fair-like tragedy needs to be examined, and the argument I've made above to move the spring Texas race to an earlier date, in my opinion, would be a sensible first step.