Coming up with a NASCAR schedule is tough
work. And I know this because I tried to
objectively create one based on one single factor alone- weather. What I found is that there isn’t much room
for big changes to the schedule to minimize the issue of weather impacts on
attendance (cold/hot and/or wet race weekends) and racing in general (wet
weather), at least given the list of tracks we currently have to choose
from. But given the opportunity to make
changes in 2015 with the new TV package and the issues we’ve had with Mother
Nature this year, I felt like it was worth looking at what would be the best
schedule based solely on average weather conditions at each track.
Of course, it’s not as simple as just
basing the schedule on weather. Many
other factors, many of which most fans probably aren’t even aware of, come into
play and can cause a logistical nightmare, where coming up with one solution
creates 10 new problems. But humor me-
Here I have done my best to come up with a schedule based solely on the best
weather conditions each week, with little attention given to logistics, and
another schedule based on my experience in meteorology and the study I’ve done
on historical weather data at each track combined with being a hard core fan of
the sport for 30 years.
A little more about my experience in
meteorology, just to hopefully give a little credibility to this study. I hold a Bachelor’s Degree in Meteorology
from Florida State University, which I received in 2003. I worked as a local TV meteorologist for 5
years, but since 2008 I have been working as a meteorologist for natural gas
and power trading operations in Houston, Texas, and now work for one of the
largest energy companies in the world where in addition to forecasting for
cities all over North America for the trade floor, I also predict weather
impacts to our offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico, ensuring the safety
of all our employees and contractors during severe weather events.
Again, I mention this to separate me from
just a fan with a crazy idea… hopefully.
Being a long-time attendee at Atlanta Motor
Speedway, I have seen how weather can affect attendance, and being a
meteorologist I know why some tracks shouldn’t have (or shouldn’t have had in
the past) races on certain dates. What
I’ve done is create a very basic index based on temperatures and average
precipitation.
There are countless ways to come up with an
index for weather at racetracks, and you could make them as complicated as you
want. Maybe one day I will, but for now,
I wanted to keep it simple just to see if it would make any difference to the
schedule. Take the daily average amount
of precipitation and compare it to the average yearly total precipitation at
that track, and take the daily average temperature and compare it to room
temperature, 72 degrees. Combine these
two factors, and the lowest values indicate the best weather conditions week to
week.
There are some obvious things that come
up. Homestead, Phoenix, Vegas and
California are good for racing anytime in the spring or fall. Northern tracks are only good from June to
September… etc. But there are some
interesting things learned through the analysis I did that could lead to a good
alternative schedule. Note that in the
schedules I’ve created, I’ve left some historic dates intact because it
wouldn’t make any sense to change them.
The Daytona 500 is still race #1 and should always be, and the Coke Zero
(Firecracker) 400 there needs to remain on July 4th weekend. And the Coke 600 has to be the weekend of
Memorial Day because, well it just does.
Texas Motor Speedway actually has favorable
weather for a large chunk of the season.
We could easily race there in mid-March and usually avoid issues with
cold weather. And more importantly in my
book, that would reduce the odds of severe weather impacting TMS during a race
weekend. That’s a ticking time bomb in
my opinion. I always thought that
instead of getting rid of the March race at Atlanta, they should have swapped
dates with Texas and put it in April. My
index clearly shows this would have been better for both tracks…. But I
digress. I’m still bitter about losing
one of my Atlanta race weekends.
What I found as I tried to pick tracks for
certain dates is that we simply have too many races up north that make it hard
to fit all the other tracks together in a way that makes sense, especially the
northern tracks that have two dates.
There’s a reason Pocono’s races are so close together in the current
schedule- it’s because they have such a short window of comfortable and dry
weather there. The same can be said for
Loudon (NHMS), Michigan, and to a somewhat lesser extent Dover.
Now, I’m not big on taking races away from
places, but three of those four tracks which have limited weather windows
during the season- Dover, Pocono, and Loudon – have been talked about in the
past regarding either attendance issues or the racing action. Personally, I like Pocono and Dover because
they are both very unique and challenging.
I’ve never been a fan of Loudon, but there are plenty of New Englanders
who are already screaming at me having read that statement. But if one or two, or all three of these
tracks were to be reduced to just one race a season, it would make this whole process
a lot easier. If I’m Bruton Smith, I get
rid of the September race at Loudon and replace it with Las Vegas or Atlanta,
or move the August Bristol race to that date and give the series an extra off
weekend in the summer. In fact, here’s
an idea- take Loudon out of the Chase and in return ask for Bristol to get the
last race of the regular season instead of Richmond, and move Richmond INTO the
chase.
And if we are going to remove race dates
from a few tracks, we can add a new track or two to the schedule, or just have
a few extra off-weekends. Maybe we could
fit in an Iowa or Road America race in the early summer by taking a race away
from Dover or Pocono.
Under this new chase format, I really think
the last race of the season would be best at a short track. Ponder this- Last race of the season, four
drivers, whoever finishes best wins the championship. Put them on a track where not only could they
still manage to win the race with a beat up car should they run into some bad
luck or get caught up in someone else’s mess, but where going for broke by
rubbing fenders or “rattling someone’s cage” is an option. Look at how exciting the finish at Watkins
Glen was due to what was at stake. To
me, this new format can ONLY work if you end the season at a short track. And it gives a nod to the sport’s history,
too.
The problem is, finding a short track in a
climate suitable for racing in mid-November is really, really hard. It’s hard to believe, but the only southern
short tracks we race at are Bristol, Richmond and Martinsville, and none of those
places have what I would consider favorable average weather conditions for a
race weekend in mid-November. Darlington
isn’t really a short track, but is the shortest track with average weather
conditions that are close to tolerable on my scale. Even Vegas, which has been talked about as a
good spot for the finale, is marginal at best and not much better than Darlington. Realistically, the only track currently on
the schedule that makes sense for that date weather-wise is Homestead. So I guess I’m stuck with it.
I have nothing against Homestead-Miami
Speedway. In fact, if it’s going to
remain the last race of the season, and we are going to ditch a couple of track’s
second race dates, I think there is a strong argument that Homestead should
have a race near the beginning of the season too. I actually love the track, as it reminds me
of the old Atlanta before they reconfigured it in the 90s. It has produced some great racing since they
added the banking, which I think at times has been overshadowed by a lack of
excitement in the championship battle.
Plus, the weather there is perfect in early Spring (as well as
mid-November). I would say go there
right after Daytona, but realistically that would probably hurt attendance at
both tracks as we’re already in Florida for most of the month of February. So, how about putting it in early April after
a West Coast Swing… right around the time a lot of people are in Florida for
Spring Break? Lots of potential there.
There has been a lot of talk about weekday
evening races. Personally, I don’t think
it would work except for TV, and I am kind of tired of doing things for the TV
business and not for track attendance.
Who other than locals or fans spending the entire week at a track are
going to be able to attend a weeknight race in person? It works at Daytona (the Duals) because it’s
Daytona. The only other place I think it
could work would be at Charlotte for the All-Star Race. I think we could try that first, see how the
ratings and attendance are, and then consider trying it elsewhere if we still
want to.
So my schedule puts Martinsville in place
of the All Star weekend and puts the All-Star Race on Thursday night before the
Coke 600. Yes, that does take away one
of the “breaks” the teams get by being at home in Charlotte for two straight
weeks, but that’s why I picked Martinsville- it’s just a few hours down the road
and hugely popular among fans. Plus, you could give the teams an off weekend
the following week since we’ve taken a couple races away elsewhere.
These are just ideas, and I am in no way
saying it’s better than anyone else’s schedule that they’ve created. But when you are coming up with something
new, it is helpful to look at it from many different perspectives and listen to
any and all ideas that have some kind of foundation underneath them, other than
just personal opinion which could be biased to suit one’s own purpose. If I had my way, Atlanta would get a second
race date back, but my analysis shows that there are probably better options
than that for everyone.
I am confident that if there are any
changes made by NASCAR, driven by track owners’ financial needs or not, they
are looking at as many angles as possible and doing the best they can to come
up with a schedule that works as well as it can. What my analysis does not do is pay any
respect at all to the cost required to travel from race to race under this
schedule, events and activities at racetracks that would conflict with these
dates, turnarounds for tracks to prepare (or repair perhaps) the facility from
one race date to another, infrastructure, logistics, TV commitments, sponsors…
and the list goes on and on. And
honestly, it could be that there is an even better way to index the weather
than I’ve come up with, leading to an even better schedule based on the
weather. But maybe, just maybe this
study gets to one of the powers to be and causes them to look a little closer
at the impact of weather on the schedule.
Rows in red text indicate race dates I believe should never be changed. Everything else is up for debate! I have not taken into account which races could/should be run at night, only where they should be each weekend. "wx schedule" is the schedule I came up with taking only weather into account- this uses the current list of tracks on the 2014 Sprint Cup schedule and orders them based on my race-weather index. "wx+personal opinion" is a schedule I came up with based on both average weather conditions from week to week, and my own opinion.
weekend of | wx schedule | wx+personal opinion |
14-Feb-15 | Sprint Unlimited | Sprint Unlimited |
19-Feb-15 | Budweiser Duals | Budweiser Duals |
22-Feb-15 | Daytona 500 | Daytona 500 |
1-Mar-15 | Phoenix | Phoenix |
8-Mar-15 | Vegas | Las Vegas |
15-Mar-15 | Auto Club Speedway | Auto Club Speedway |
22-Mar-15 | Texas Motor Speedway | Texas Motor Speedway |
29-Mar-15 | Darlington | Homestead-Miami Speedway |
5-Apr-15 | Talladega | Talladega |
12-Apr-15 | AMS | Atlanta Motor Speedway |
19-Apr-15 | off | off |
26-Apr-15 | Richmond | Richmond |
3-May-15 | Bristol | Bristol |
10-May-15 | Sonoma | Sonoma |
17-May-15 | off | Martinsville |
24-May-15 | Charlotte Coke 600 | Charlotte Coke 600 |
31-May-15 | Dover | off or add Road America |
7-Jun-15 | New Hampshore Motor Speedway | New Hampshire Motor Speedway |
14-Jun-15 | Michigan | Michigan |
21-Jun-15 | Pocono | Iowa |
28-Jun-15 | Martinsville | Kansas |
5-Jul-15 | Daytona | Daytona |
12-Jul-15 | Kansas | Pocono |
19-Jul-15 | off | off |
26-Jul-15 | Watkins Glen | Watkins Glen |
2-Aug-15 | Indy | Indy |
9-Aug-15 | Chicago | Chicago |
16-Aug-15 | Kentucky | Kentucky |
23-Aug-15 | Pocono | Michigan |
30-Aug-15 | New Hampshore Motor Speedway | Off |
6-Sep-15 | Michigan | Bristol |
13-Sep-15 | Kansas | Dover |
20-Sep-15 | Dover | Kansas |
27-Sep-15 | Martinsville | Martinsville |
4-Oct-15 | Bristol | Richmond |
11-Oct-15 | Richmond | Darlington |
18-Oct-15 | Charlotte | Charlotte |
25-Oct-15 | Talladega | Talladega |
1-Nov-15 | Texas | Texas Motor Speedway |
8-Nov-15 | Phoenix | Phoenix |
15-Nov-15 | Homestead | Homestead |